History shows that geopolitical risks, armed conflicts, and wars were common catalysts to the emergence of new defense technology innovations. While there is some common belief which is enough for deduction that conflicts restrict technological advance in the conflicting countries, recent works, such as José M. Ortiz-Villajos & José J. Martos-Gómez. (2023): Technological Emergence and Military Technology Innovation; prove the opposite. Indeed, this interaction shows how, while some regions face stagnation in innovation because of conflict, other regions can get benefits from such a situation, pushing for innovation and exports. Such a broad analysis will observe how current conflicts in Azerbaijan and Ukraine reflect this dual influence, orienting towards the principal actors: Turkey, Israel, Europe, and the United States.

Negative Impacts on Innovation in Conflict Zones

Resource Diversion and Economic Strain —— In countries that find themselves in a state of conflict, financing is usually channeled to current needs for military solutions, not into long-term R&D. Like Azerbaijan did during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it invested in military procurement as opposed to civilian technology development. Indeed, according to a SIPRI report, the defense expenditure of Azerbaijan grew by some 40% from 2018 to 2020, with the lion’s share being aimed at providing the latest types of weapons and upgrading the country’s military infrastructure. These huge financial burdens imposed result in reduced financial allocations for civilian industries and long-term technological projects, hence hamstringing the technological innovations in the country.

Brain Drain and Human Capital Loss

Conflicts and wars result in massive movements out of skilled professionals into presumably safer environments and usually at heavy losses in the brain drain. The protracted conflict in Azerbaijan has seen the exodus of scientists, engineers, and technologists from the Azerbaijan to more stable countries. During these two years, from 2017 to 2019, the number of Azerbaijani emigrants is favored in Turkey by a net migration rate that points towards an increase drastically. This demographic was the leading section of the country’s skilled labor force; it stood as a formation pole for scientists, engineers, and technologists who wanted to get out of the instabilities and conflicts that prevailed in their native country.

Infrastructure Destruction

Most wars destroy the important infrastructures that are intended to form the backbone of technological development. In Azerbaijan, there was much ruin in infrastructure such as research laboratories and educational institutions. More than one thousand educational facilities, including kindergartens, were totally destroyed, hence disrupting academic and research life, which has been very critical for innovation.

In general, the Harop and Bayraktar TB2 represents another story: a conflict brings a collection of implications about how urgently supplier states have to innovate and how well they can take empirical combat feedback to improve their technological artifacts.

Catalytic Role of Conflicts in Innovation in Allied Nations

Boosting Defense R&D in Turkey and Israel —— Indeed, despite all the internal challenges, military procurement in Azerbaijan spurred a real breakthrough in innovation among its partners, notably Turkey and Israel. For example, Baykar was one of Turkey’s defense companies, which had unprecedented demand for its Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial systems from Azerbaijan. It has made that big push over Baykar to put a lot into R&D toward advanced unmanned aerial systems. While 98% of revenues came from exports, in 2022, for Baykar, the Bayraktar TB2 was its cash cow. These high demands from countries like Azerbaijan have enabled it to keep pumping heavy amounts into R&D to develop more advanced platforms like Bayraktar Akinci, which have signed export contracts with four countries already. These numbers emphasize Baykar’s export-oriented revenues and relentless spending to increase its unmanned aerial systems, to which Azerbaijan will be tied by becoming part of upgrading defense technologies.

In return, Israel’s defense industry benefited from providing state-of-the-art technologies to Azerbaijan. IAI supplied its Harop loitering munitions for instance, boosting the latter’s offensive capabilities. This cooperation enhanced the military effectiveness of Azerbaijan and simultaneously pushed IAI to develop more technologies in the sphere of precision-guided munitions and autonomous weapon systems. During 2023, Israel crossed a landmark figure in its exports of defense, with value at $13.1 billion, which markedly increased through many international deals. That increase now puts the arms export two-fold in the last five years concerning Israel’s defense. Most of the exports were related to missile, rocket as well as air defense systems; it represented 36% of the overall export amount of the country. Defense-related achievements related to this increased demand, mainly by states such as Azerbaijan, have allowed Israel to reinvest heavily in advanced projects linked to R&D, thus increasing its defense capability and technological development.

Technological Spillover and Enhanced Capabilities

The largest technological spillovers of the procurement efforts by Azerbaijan went to both Turkey and Israel. For example, the use of the Bayraktar TB2 drone in the Nagorno-Karabakh theater of war is giving empirical data that Turkish engineers are using to improve drone algorithms toward more sensor integration. That real-world input into sensor integration will compress innovation timelines and put Turkey at the head of global drone technology.

For Israel, actual use of Harop missiles in real-life scenarios brought much insight into the role of unmanned technology on battlefields. This firsthand experience further influenced newer designs, which has culminated in facilitating the development of new and more sophisticated autonomous weapons and defense systems. In general, the Harop and Bayraktar TB2 represents another story: a conflict brings a collection of implications about how urgently supplier states have to innovate and how well they can take empirical combat feedback to improve their technological artifacts.

The War in Ukraine: A Catalyst for Western Defense Innovation

Increased Military Support from Europe and the United States —— The long war in Ukraine, initiated by Russia in 2022, has drastically shifted the defensive landscape throughout Europe and North America. The United States and European Union member states have hugely expanded their military aid to Ukraine, driving unprecedented levels of defense procurement and technological innovation. As of mid-2023, according to the U.S. Department of Defense, military aid provided to Ukraine has topped over well $50 billion, including advanced weapons systems, intelligence support, and numerous training programs.

Accelerated Development of Advanced Technologies

The acute conflict in Ukraine has given impetus to the rapid development of many different types of defense technologies. For example, equipping Ukraine with the so-called HIMARS apparatus, which even now has already proved highly effective there. Its success in operational service urged U.S. producers of defense products to seek further improvement to increase the precision of missiles and their range, while adding new elements of artificial intelligence for better targeting. It’s not hard to conclude that the cumulative feedback from Ukraine’s use of HIMARS improved missile guidance technologies dramatically.

European Defense Sector Revitalization

Due to the war in Ukraine, innovation within defense-related areas is being spurred throughout Europe; German decisions to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine include and catalyze domestic developments related to the modernization of the battlefield and integration of tanks. German defense industry hiked its R&D investments by 15% in 2023 to make advancements in technologies related to armor improvement, digital communication system integration, and hybrid propulsion systems to enable higher performance of tanks in terms of mobility and efficiency.

Apart from this, the resulting ongoing conflict has also deepened substantial financial investments by European countries in missile defense systems, electronic warfare technologies, and cyber defense programs. On October 2023, 10 NATO Allies made a significant step toward further increasing the capabilities of joint air and missile defense in Europe and moved ahead with the European Sky Shield Initiative. Led by Germany, the initiative aims to underpin integrated air and missile defense systems through joint acquisition with Europeans of defense equipment. With development of defense capacities for the nations involved, this initiative will also underscore interoperability and economic efficiency. It represents the commitment of fair burden-sharing by the European Allies associated with collective security as well. The increased financial contribution and joint activities reflect the increasing awareness of the requirement for a more active response to evolving ballistic threats across Europe. The undertaking is the clearest example yet of the emphasis which European states are putting on reinforcing their defense capabilities in the light of modern-day security demands.

NATO’s Technological Advancements

The war in Ukraine, therefore, reinvigorated the method of defense and big leaps in technology across the bloc. This is also a new demand for interoperability and rapid adoption of new emerging technologies to accelerate communications architectures, integrated common command and control systems, and integrated defense networks. A case in point is that in 2023 alone, the NATO Innovation Fund went deeper in work focused on artificial intelligence, autonomous technologies, and cybersecurity. These efforts have resulted in cooperation among the member states in the development of standard technologies that enhance collective defense capabilities.

Comparative Analysis: Conflict Zones vs. Allied Innovators

Azerbaijan vs. Turkey and Israel The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict captures a stark difference in the pathways of innovation between Azerbaijan and its supporters — Turkey and Israel. While Azerbaijan’s innovation capacity was low because of lack of resources, heavy infrastructure damage, and brain drain, Turkey and Israel seized on Azerbaijan’s procurement needs to make dramatic gains in their defense technological capacities. This encouraged rapid developments and enhancements due to the emergent demand that was witnessed for drones and loitering munitions, hence turning them into pace-setters in their respective niches of the global defense industry.

Ukraine vs. Supporting Nations

Similarly, the war in Ukraine aroused innovation for the allied countries constituting the US and the conglomeration of European nations, while Ukraine, to maintain its technological and economic stability as such, is taking heavily on challenges. Rapid fielding and testing of systems such as the HIMARS spurred on betterment rapidly technologically in the US while the European countries jump-started their defense industries by stepping up R&D investment. This sensitive dynamic exemplifies how, in conflict, external support can enforce technological leadership on and amplify defence capability within the supporting nations, while the actual theatres of conflict can barely survive, let alone maintain innovation ecosystems.

Conclusion

Geopolitical conflicts have a doubled effect on defense innovation: examples currently are the conflicts in Azerbaijan and Ukraine, which visibly retarded technological development in directly involved countries and, at the same time, worked as an impetus for innovation in allied and supporting countries. In cooperation over defense procurement with Azerbaijan, for example, both Turkey and Israel accelerated technological development in strike drones and loitering munitions. Meanwhile the war in Ukraine has spurred major changes both in the United States and across Europe, breathing new life into their defense industries and giving them a technological leap.

That’s quite an interplay, and it underscores what is perhaps the most important reason the policymaker and defense strategist should appreciate this complex interaction: a need to balance pressing military needs with long-term innovation policy. By nurturing competent, agile defense sectors, donor countries will be able to respond well to current conflicts and ensure a trajectory of long-term technological advance in an increasingly insecure geopolitical climate.

References

José M. Ortiz-Villajos & José J. Martos-Gómez. (2023) Military Technology, Defense Spending and Modernization of the Armed Forces: The Case of Spain, 1891–1935. Defence and Peace Economics 0:0, pages 1–25.

U.S. Department of Defense. (2023, June 9). Ukraine Fact Sheet. https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jun/09/2003238573/-1/-1/0/UKRAINE-FACT-SHEET-JUNE-9.PDF

U.S. Department of Defense. (2023, August 14). Ukraine Fact Sheet. https://media.defense.gov/2023/Aug/14/2003280324/-1/-1/1/UKRAINE_FACT_SHEET_PDA%2044_.PDF

U.S. Department of State. (n.d.). U.S. Security Cooperation with Ukraine. U.S. Department of State. https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/

Jerusalem Post. (2024, June 17). Israel defense exports hit record $13.1 billion in 2023. The Jerusalem Post. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-806583

DefenseMirror. (2024, June 17). All Time High Israeli Defense Exports of $13B in 2023. DefenseMirror. https://www.defensemirror.com/news/37058/All_Time_High_Israeli_Defense_Exports_of__13B_in_2023

International Organization for Migration. (2023). Migration in the Republic of Azerbaijan: A Country Profile 2013–2021. https://publications.iom.int/books/migration-republic-azerbaijan-country-profile-2013-2021