Determinants of Defence Technology Innovation: A Comparative Analysis of Economic, Geopolitical, And Policy Factors Across Leading and Emerging Nations

Published in To be published, 2024

This paper aims to compare and analyse defence technology innovation (DTI) across different nations, making use of key assessments of major economic, geopolitical, and policy-related drivers of DTI in developed and developing nations. Results for six countries—that is, China, Germany, Israel, Poland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom— have been modelled by applying both Fixed Effects and Gradient Boosting Machine Models, each capture different analysis, thus considering that these countries are relatively different in terms of their geopolitical and economic profiles, not to mention their respective defence industries. The findings also suggest that a better approach for developing DTI will need to go beyond traditional measures of economic performance to include governance efficiency, political stability, and geopolitical risk. Results has shown that geopolitical conflicts and instability form part of the huge interruptions to innovation; hence, coherent policies make way for the success of economic growth and technological advancements while being shielded from political and geopolitical shocks. Lastly, the analysis concludes that DTI has a self-reinforcing positive circle: economic development, governance, and strategic R&D investment feed each other. This is important in the case of countries that have reached or would like to occupy high positions in defence technology innovation.

Recommended citation: Mumin Ahmedoglu. (2024). "Determinants of Defence Technology Innovation: A Comparative Analysis of Economic, Geopolitical, And Policy Factors Across Leading and Emerging Nations." - .
Download Paper