Economic and Strategic Drivers of European Defense Discourse: A Text-as-Data and Dynamic Econometric Analysis (2000–2024)
Research Presentation, 28th International Conference on Economics and Security (ICES 2025), Ulster University, Belfast, Northern Ireland
This presentation explored the evolution of European Union defense discourse and institutional dynamics through a comprehensive analysis of political speeches from the European Commission and European Parliament over the period 2000-2024. Using a novel combination of computational text analysis and advanced econometric methods, I investigate how defense-related discourse responds to external security threats, institutional mechanisms, and domestic political pressures. The research employs a balanced panel dataset (N=50) covering 25 years across two institutions, analyzing four distinct dimensions of defense discourse: Defense Speech Share, Joint Capability Share, Sovereignty Share, and Threat Justification Share.