Mümin Ahmedoğlu

Mümin Ahmedoğlu

Mümin Ahmedoğlu is a Doctoral Researcher at the University of Vienna’s Department of Business Decisions and Analytics and holds a Master’s degree in Management and Technology from the Technical University of Munich (TUM), specializing in innovation economics. His research explores the economics of defense procurement and innovation in the European Union, focusing on how industrial asymmetries, sovereignty constraints, and institutional mechanisms affect coordination, efficiency, and strategic outcomes in joint defense projects. His work advances understanding of the economic and institutional foundations of European defense and their implications for strategic autonomy, innovation policy, and international security cooperation.

Blog posts

2026

When Industrial Capacity Becomes a Weapon: Can Germany Reinvent Itself?

17 minute read

Published:

Before I moved to Germany, I had a friend and coworker who had preceded me there. He was Turkish and moved to work in Germany, so one day I asked him: Do you not think that Germany, by all indicators, is regressing rather than progressing? He answered me in a single sentence: “The Germans will know how to solve their problems. They have faced bigger crises and overcome them. They are Germans, and if things go wrong I will simply return to Turkey.”

Military Superiority Delusion.. How Technology Becomes a Burden in Times of War

12 minute read

Published:

In 1983, Norman Augustine, former CEO of Lockheed Martin—the maker of America’s best-known and most powerful fighter jets—sat in his office, holding production and development reports and the company’s expenses. After lengthy reading and analysis, he proposed a wry law that would later be known as the “Sixteenth Augustine Law.”

How Do Pakistan’s Military Institutions Control The Economy?

11 minute read

Published:

On Tuesday, May 9, 2023, Imran Khan, then Prime Minister of Pakistan, who still commands a broad popular base, entered Islamabad High Court for a trial session connected to corruption and illicit gains in a case known at the time as the Al-Qadir Trust. The session was supposed to be a routine investigation, and Imran Khan went of his own accord; he was not under detention before that.

A War Economy in Times of Peace: Algeria’s Difficult Equation

9 minute read

Published:

Let’s talk about a country of great interest… A country with a fiscal deficit of nearly $40 billion in 2026… The same deficit is expected to continue in 2027… Then rise to $42 billion in 2028… Despite this, it is making huge defense purchases, exceeding countries such as Italy and Poland. If we look at its armament, we find a very strange and striking combination of Russian systems with Chinese ammunition and South African air defense.

2025

Why Are Countries Unable To Produce Cheap Weapons?

6 minute read

Published:

Countries that are advanced in the defense industry are capable of manufacturing sophisticated weapons, but they are unable to develop and produce cheap weapons in large quantities. Let’s examine the reason for this problem.

The Egyptian Army in 2025: The Problem of Spending and Egypt’s Deterrence Strategy

10 minute read

Published:

This is the first article in a series of articles excerpted from the Military Balance 2025 report. I analyze everything in the report and compile the information together in order to arrive at a useful picture for understanding the reality and the existing problems of different militaries. Starting today with Egypt.

Saudi Arabia’s Defense Industry And The Trap of Numbers

10 minute read

Published:

Let’s start with an obvious economic fact: numbers can “lie.” Not because they are wrong in themselves, but because they may measure things that are completely different from what we think.

Joint Arab Defense Is An Economically Irrational Option

9 minute read

Published:

Without delving into politics or conspiracy theories, let’s take a look at the state of defense industries and defense cooperation in the Arab world, and try to understand why there is no joint Arab defense project. I will surprise you when I lead you to the idea that the choice not to cooperate in the field of defense is actually a rational decision.

The Trap of Recruitment and Employment in The Defense Industry

14 minute read

Published:

Many young people want to work in the defense industry, but did you know that this sector has one of the highest employee turnover rates in the world? And that employees leave their jobs quickly and continuously?

The Transformation of Defense Economies in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

7 minute read

Published:

I was talking to a friend who is an outstanding computer engineer. He studied and worked at universities and companies that are the dream of many young people anywhere in the world. He has now decided to study business administration (MBA), even though he already has a master’s degree in politics and technology, and has switched his specialization to artificial intelligence, not in programming, but in the management and economics of artificial intelligence (yes, there is now a specialization with this name).

The War of Security Narratives in Egypt: Security, Fear, and Power from Mubarak to Sisi

45 minute read

Published:

In the heated political summer of July 2013, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi — then still the Minister of Defense — appeared on camera to make a direct appeal to the Egyptian people: “I am asking the Egyptian people for something. Next Friday, all honorable and loyal Egyptians must take to the streets. Why? To give me a mandate and an order to confront potential violence and terrorism.”

When Data Replaces Dignity: A Critique of Rationalism in Politics and War

7 minute read

Published:

As human beings, we like to make sense of the world around us. We connect this thing to that thing, we draw a map in our minds that helps us navigate life and make decisions. But often, that map starts with a simple metaphor — and slowly, over time, that metaphor turns into a “truth” in our minds. Take, for example: “The brain is like a computer.” That was originally just a scientific analogy, meant to help explain a complex idea. But over time, we started treating the brain as if it literally were a computer. And we forgot that, at the end of the day, we are human — not machines.

Game Theory in Action: Coalition Bargaining in Germany’s 2025 Bundestag Election

8 minute read

Published:

The ultimate outcome of the 2025 Bundestag election has yielded a coalition environment that is dominated bilaterally by CDU/CSU and SPD. Looking at the results of the elections, CDU/CSU is in the forefront with 208 seats (28.52%), followed by AfD with 152 seats (20.8%), SPD with 120 seats (16.41%), and the Greens with 85 seats (11.61%). Die Linke garnered 64 seats (8.77%), and SSW has only one seat (0.15%). Notably, BSW (4.97%) and FDP (4.33%) failed to gain representation in the Bundestag. This means that CDU/CSU and SPD are the sole potential coalition partners under these results, with a total of 328 seats, enough to form a government. By this, it is a two-player coalition bargaining game, and bargaining strength must be based on interdependency, not simply the count of seats.

2024

Why PESCO Should Focus More on Including Small Countries?

3 minute read

Published:

The Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) framework has been an essential part of Europe’s strategy for collective defense and provides a platform where collaborative work by the EU member states for the development and enhancement of military capabilities is facilitated. Long-term efficacy will depend on full involvement by every country in PESCO, and actually I see that sentence is even more meaningful when we talk particularly about the smaller countries. Projects such as the European Patrol Corvette EPC with Greece and Portugal showcase the integration of these smaller countries within complex projects in defense. These nations provide distinctive geographic and operational advantages, including Portugal’s presence in the Atlantic and Greece’s expertise in naval operations, which are crucial for fortifying Europe’s maritime defense. Emphasizing their participation not only improves the projects under PESCO but also guarantees an equitable distribution of the benefits of innovation throughout the European Union.

The Impact of Industrial Decline and Economic Marginalization on Communities and Strategies for Mitigating Regional Disadvantages

9 minute read

Published:

The decline of industrial activities and related economic marginalization have radically changed communities by undermining social cohesion, collective memory, and economic sustainability. Drawing on studies by Alice Mah, Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, and Stuart W. Leslie, this article endeavors to examine the varied influences of industrial decline on community identity, memory, and socio-political dynamics. It also looks at how innovation policies contribute to regional disparities by pointing to the trend of copying models completely in disregard for the specific needs of less-developed regions. Finally, it synthesizes actionable strategies in overcoming such regional deficiencies by focusing on context-sensitive policies, infrastructure development, community involvement, and a sustainable system of policies for balanced development.

The Illusion of Universality in Innovation Policy and the Advocacy for Radical Localism.

3 minute read

Published:

I engage with the dominant view on limited need for modification when models are transmitted across regions in global innovation policy. Although the authors criticize the “one-size-fits-all” methodology and promote the idea of localized adaptation, I contend that a more profound shift is necessary — advocating for a model of radical localism, whereby regions should completely forsake standardized frameworks in preference for policies developed exclusively based on local needs, historical backgrounds, and socio-political contexts.

The Aegean Dispute and Defense Dynamics: A Comprehensive Analysis of Greece-Turkey Rivalry and Its Economic Implications

14 minute read

Published:

This analysis is based on a detailed examination of 7 articles on the subject. It aims to provide a broader perspective by bringing together research on the Aegean dispute between Greece and Turkey, military expenditures, and the defense policies of these two countries. The varied perceptions and results come to offer a detailed apprehension regarding the causes of regional tensions and potential solutions.

Technological Innovation in Military R&D: Perspectives Between Mowery, Kaempffert, and Milward

9 minute read

Published:

Military R&D has long been one of the major driving forces of technological change, especially in the industrialized nations. R&D investment from the DoD and member countries of NATO drives both military and civilian technology advancement. The investigation is elaborated in this article in light of theoretical conceptions, mechanisms, and historical contexts that are expressing this linkage. It deals with how military-driven innovation has molded the fortunes — through case studies in some detail along with quantitative estimates — of industries related to semiconductors, commercial aviation, and information technology. This article also addresses the more general influences of military R&D on national innovation structures, due to the crowding out of private industry innovation and its effects on productivity growth.

Political and Economic Dynamics of Inflation in U.S. Military Spending

11 minute read

Published:

The American military budget inflation is a difficult question, involving diverse political, economic, and institutional factors. The rate of military inflation in 1940 was on an advancing track compared to the non-military governmental sector and with respect to the entire economy (Fordham, 2003). With such regard, trying to figure out the exact cost of military spending through time becomes fairly challenging. In the seminal work “The Political and Economic Sources of Inflation in the American Military Budget” by Benjamin O. Fordham, reasons for the existence of that reality are listed as follows: public sector inflation induced by labor intensity, the cyclic nature of military spending, and the effect of the Pentagon on deflator series. This article thus consolidates Fordham’s work and relevant literature to serve as a basis from which to understand inflation in the U.S. military budget.

“Guns vs Butter” or “Guns Yield Butter”: Government Ideology and Military Spending

14 minute read

Published:

Military spending is a very significant and highly scrutinized aspect of government policy, because it epitomizes the complex interaction of issues regarding national defense, economic interests, and political ideology. Decisions to allocate resources in favor of defense over competing needs in other sectors such as social welfare, education, or infrastructure are not made based on perceived threats but are so significantly conditioned by the ideology of the ruling party. This article provides a summarized analysis of the impact of government ideology on military spending by referring to various academic research with a great variety of empirical data.

The Strategic Shift Towards Export-Focused Defense Industries

7 minute read

Published:

Nowadays, more and more countries have progressively set their defense industries toward exports. A number of economic, strategic, and operational factors give rise to this trend, which underscores the importance of military exports in view of maintaining a viable defense industrial base. This article discusses reasons for such a phenomenon, as well as multifaceted forms of benefits linked to an export-oriented defense approach.

The Dual Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Defense Technology Innovation

12 minute read

Published:

History shows that geopolitical risks, armed conflicts, and wars were common catalysts to the emergence of new defense technology innovations. While there is some common belief which is enough for deduction that conflicts restrict technological advance in the conflicting countries, recent works, such as José M. Ortiz-Villajos & José J. Martos-Gómez. (2023): Technological Emergence and Military Technology Innovation; prove the opposite. Indeed, this interaction shows how, while some regions face stagnation in innovation because of conflict, other regions can get benefits from such a situation, pushing for innovation and exports. Such a broad analysis will observe how current conflicts in Azerbaijan and Ukraine reflect this dual influence, orienting towards the principal actors: Turkey, Israel, Europe, and the United States.

Defining Military Innovation: An Exploration of Concepts and Frameworks

18 minute read

Published:

When we speak about technological innovations like AI technologies, it is already quite explicit that we are speaking about a range of completely diverse areas and applications, from machine learning to natural language processing, all of which somehow cohere under a banner that is quite comprehensible in the larger context of technological transformation.

Transforming Defense: How Turkey Evolved from a Nascent Industry to a Global Player

5 minute read

Published:

This analysis is based on triggered research by Uğur Ermiş and Günseli Gümüşel, published in Defense & Security Analysis (2023, Volume 39, Issue 1), for a critical appreciation of the industry’s failures and challenges between 1919 and 1950 in Turkey. It provides an effort toward baselining the understanding of the historical context that provides a backdrop for evaluating the industry’s evolution. Moreover, this analysis makes detailed comparisons with the current state of the Turkish defense sector based on recent data and my research findings. In this way, it incorporates historical perspectives with up-to-date information to build a complete picture of how the industry of that country has changed from early misguided beginnings into the successes it experiences at the current time.

Ar-Ge Harcamalarının Sınıflandırılmasının Önemi: ABD ve Türkiye Bağlamında Savunma İnovasyonu Üzerine Bir İnceleme

3 minute read

Published:

ABD’nin Bağımsız Ar-Ge (IR&D) programı, şirketlerin hükümet sözleşmelerindeki ek maliyetler aracılığıyla Ar-Ge’yi finanse etmelerine olanak tanıyarak savunma inovasyonunu desteklemektedir. Ancak bu sistem, hükümetin Ar-Ge için teklif vermesi, ancak bu maliyetlerin tedarik olarak kaydedilmesi nedeniyle toplam hükümet Ar-Ge harcamalarının olduğundan düşük gösterilmesine yol açar.

What Is Defense Innovation, Military Innovation, and Defense Technology Innovation?

4 minute read

Published:

It is complex to assess why some countries are promising innovators in defense technology while others are not. Answering this question starts with defining the boundaries between three closely related yet distinct concepts: defense innovation, military innovation, and defense technology innovation. While these terms seem almost the same and are often used interchangeably, each refers to a distinctive framework for the national security and technological advancement landscape.

Beyond the Battlefield: How Defense Innovation is Shaping the Future of Global Power

19 minute read

Published:

This article is richly informed by the analysis of defense innovation literature, especially that seminal work by Dr. Simona R. Soare and Fabrice Pothier, “Leading Edge: Key Drivers of Defence Innovation and the Future of Operational Advantage.” More specifically, it digs into the thoughts, challenges, and strategic implications outlined in that seminal paper to examine the multidimensional nature of defense innovation, which holds a critical position in modern military strategies and national security in an increasingly complex global environment.

Application of Shared-Democratic-Values Perspective (SDVP) in the Egyptian Context

6 minute read

Published:

There is an essential political theory about civil-military relations, and a critical framework associated with it which is the “Shared-Democratic-Values Perspective.” This framework can help us understand and analyze the relations between civil and military in Egypt after sweeping changes starting with the “revolution” in 1952.

Türkiye’s Peripheral Role in European Defence: An In-Depth Analysis

5 minute read

Published:

This article is a summary for “On The Outside Looking In: Turkiye’s Peripheral Role in European Defence-industrial Collaboration Since the End of the Cold War Report” written by Karl Dewey, Haena Jo, Fenella McGerty, Ester Sabatino, and Tom Waldwyn.

Navigating the Intersection of Science and Policy: A Review of Mark E. Rushefsky’s Insights on Governmental Misuse of Scientific Data

2 minute read

Published:

In todays world of governing the interaction, between science and public policy stands out as a battleground where environmental and public health concerns take stage. Mark E. Rushefskys insightful piece, “The Misuse of Science in Government Decision Making “ explores this arena focusing on the Reagan administration era — a time when efforts were made to reduce the perceived burdens on industry. Rushefskys comprehensive examination reveals how scientific information can be distorted to serve interests jeopardizing the fundamental principles of scientific integrity and the reliability of governmental decisions.

2021

Stoicism and Relationship: How to Live a Relationship Like a Stoic

11 minute read

Published:

“How could two human beings who are base have sympathy of spirit one with the other? Or how could one that is good be in harmony with one that is bad? No more than a crooked piece of wood could be fitted to a straight one, or two crooked ones be put together.” Musonius Rufus.

Multiple Regression Analysis Detailed Example: Delivery Time Multiple Regression

13 minute read

Published:

The following paper carries a comprehensive regression analysis designed for modeling and interpreting the determinants that have impacts on delivery time, where of course the two most meaningful predictors are the number of cases delivered (x1) and distance to the delivery location (x2). The analysis fits an initial regression model and then goes on to check its validity through residual diagnostics: checking for normality, independence, constant variance, multicollinearity, and the presence of outliers and influential observations. If assumptions are violated, potential remedies are considered, such as refining the model or adding more variables. Following the two-step approach, this research outlines and addresses issues of positive autocorrelation, poor model fit, and influential observations in an attempt to find a more robust and better-predictive model. The step-by-step procedure used provides a detailed framework under which regression analysis and model improvement should be carried out, as was evidenced in the practical interpretation of diagnostic results.