Research
My work sits at the intersection of defense procurement, innovation policy, and institutional design, with a focus on how Europe can coordinate complex, multi-country programs efficiently while still spurring innovation and safeguarding strategic information.
My approach integrates contract theory, econometric modeling, and data-driven analysis to bridge theoretical insights with policy relevance. Beyond my doctoral work, I have studied comparative defense policy, the civilian adaptation of military technologies (UAVs), and the global dynamics of defense spending and innovation. My goal is to contribute to a more coherent understanding of how analytical and economic perspectives can improve defense cooperation and policy design in Europe.
An up-to-date list of my work is also available on Google Scholar and ORCID.
Publications
Journal article2026Online first
Turning legacy into alliance relevance: Czechia’s defense-industrial imaginary and the politics of selective sovereignty
After 2022, Czechia drew unusual attention in European defense-industrial politics. Exports rose sharply. The multilateral Czech Ammunition Initiative delivered a cumulative 4.4 million large-caliber rounds to Ukraine. CSG N.V. was listed on Euronext Amsterdam in what was, by capital raised and market capitalization, the largest defense IPO on record. Public discourse increasingly casts the country as a contributor to European defense-technological sovereignty. The structural record is narrower than the discourse suggests. Czech defense production remains concentrated in ammunition and energetics, land platforms, and legacy overhaul. Czech participation in the European Defense Fund and PESCO is broad in count but thin in leadership. The country’s defense-industrial niches (CBRN defense, passive radar, large-caliber ammunition, small arms, MRO) derive their value from sustained capacity, not from new technological frontiers. I take this gap as my analytical object. Reading the Czech case through socio-technical imaginaries and the imaginary turn, and against the smart-small-power literature, I argue that Czech defense policy operates as a strategy of selective sovereignty. The components are familiar: calibrated participation in EU and NATO instruments, security of supply, embedded industrial roles, and the maintenance of established niches. What the dominant imaginary does is not industrial transformation. It actually renders legacy capacity legible as an alliance contribution and makes the continuity strategy politically intelligible. The Czech Ammunition Initiative is the paradigmatic case.
Ahmedoğlu, M. (2026). Turning legacy into alliance relevance: Czechia’s defense-industrial imaginary and the politics of selective sovereignty. New Perspectives. https://doi.org/10.1177/2336825X261466888
@article{ahmedoglu2026turning,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin},
title = {Turning legacy into alliance relevance: Czechia’s defense-industrial imaginary and the politics of selective sovereignty},
journal = {New Perspectives},
year = {2026},
doi = {10.1177/2336825X261466888},
}
Working papers
Working paper2026Under review at European Security
Who Securitizes European Defense? Institutional Differentiation in EU Security Discourse, 2000–2024
How do EU institutions talk about defense, and what does crisis do to that talk? This article measures securitizing discourse—the moves, not their acceptance—across the Union’s three principal voices: 6.05 million sentences of European Commission speeches and European Parliament plenary debates (2000–2024) and the European Council’s summit conclusions, decomposed by a validated transformer pipeline into defense salience and three registers: threat justification, sovereignty framing, and joint-capability promotion. Three findings emerge. (1) Collective securitization is institutionally differentiated: the Commission’s discourse is capability-heavy (its share roughly 1.7 times the Parliament’s; d=2.0) and couples threat with capability language, while the Parliament’s is threat- and salience-heavy (d=-4.8) and opposes the two—the same shocks are translated into different registers by different institutional positions. (2) Securitization is punctuated with register-specific timing: 2014 broke the threat and sovereignty registers, 2022 broke salience itself (+91% in supranational speech; odds ratios 1.7–6.2 across institutions). (3) Crisis composition follows politicizing substitution: after 2022, threat and sovereignty framing gain while capability framing falls in all three institutions—compositional log-ratio models confirm the shift, and an explicit interaction test finds no significant difference between the intergovernmental and supranational voices. Politicization, these results suggest, operates inside supranational discourse itself; what changes at the extreme is the referent of sovereignty, which becomes markedly more European. The article contributes an institutional anatomy to collective securitization theory and a discursive observable to the politicization debate.
Ahmedoğlu, M. (2026). Who Securitizes European Defense? Institutional Differentiation in EU Security Discourse, 2000–2024 [Working paper]. https://ahmedoglu.github.io/research/who-securitizes-european-defense/
@unpublished{ahmedoglu2026who,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin},
title = {Who Securitizes European Defense? Institutional Differentiation in EU Security Discourse, 2000–2024},
year = {2026},
note = {Working paper. Under review at European Security},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.github.io/research/who-securitizes-european-defense/},
}
Working paper2026Under review at Defence and Peace Economics
Buying Under Fire: How the 2022 Rearmament Shock Reshaped Competition in European Defense Procurement
When a large, unexpected demand shock hits a discretionary procurement system, do public buyers compete more or less? I provide causal evidence for defense procurement, using the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a single, common shock to European rearmament. On the near-universe of EU tender records (EU-27, the UK, and Norway, 2014–2026), I estimate a defense-versus-civilian difference-in-differences with country-by-year fixed effects. Competition fell, and defense procurement shifted about ten percentage points toward the negotiated procedure without prior publication—legal sole-source awards that bypass open tendering—routed to the incumbent prime contractors that European defense-industrial policy has cultivated. Decomposing the legal justifications buyers must state, the shift is driven by “technical-monopoly” rather than urgency grounds. Replicating and extending a published coverage benchmark, I rule out that procurement migrated off-record into Article 346 exemptions; the effect survives Honest-DiD and leave-one-out checks. When rearmament meets buyer discretion, spending is absorbed by incumbents through legal exemptions rather than competition.
Ahmedoğlu, M. (2026). Buying Under Fire: How the 2022 Rearmament Shock Reshaped Competition in European Defense Procurement [Working paper]. https://ahmedoglu.github.io/research/buying-under-fire/
@unpublished{ahmedoglu2026buying,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin},
title = {Buying Under Fire: How the 2022 Rearmament Shock Reshaped Competition in European Defense Procurement},
year = {2026},
note = {Working paper. Under review at Defence and Peace Economics},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.github.io/research/buying-under-fire/},
}
Working paper2026Draft
Pools of European structural integration: framing nations and the re-centring of defence pooling after 2022
If austerity after 2008 aroused the European interest in pooling and sharing, the Crimean crisis of 2014 turned it into a programme: NATO Centres of Excellence, the Permanent Structured Cooperation, the European Defence Fund, OCCAR programmes, the EU Battlegroups and NATO’s forward presence are several hundred small collective actions through which European allies pool national resources under a framing nation. This article reads them through Galtung’s structural theory of integration, in which integration is the formation of a new actor by territorial, organisational or associational principles, and operationalises the theory with a typology that codes every pool by one of five functions and aggregates the functions by the capability pooled, the form of the pool and its content. On 496 pools and 3,177 participations of the 27 EU member states and the United Kingdom, it asks who frames and who joins each group of pools, and whether the centre of the system is the same whichever theory defines it: structural position, capacity, the size of the defence institution, or status. Five findings follow. The centres coincide at the top, with the United Kingdom as the rank-disequilibrated exception; framing follows the size of the defence institution rather than money or status, and joiners are drawn by size, not by soft power; along the supply chain from industry through the rear echelon to military operations the interaction structure turns from feudal to one without a stable centre, and from non-contiguous to territorial; the post-communist allies form an association of equals in the rear echelon while industry remains a club of the large; and from the launch of PESCO the common capabilities re-centred on the large Western institutions, the post-communist share of new participations in the operational pools falling from 40 per cent before 2014 to 23 per cent after 2022, while the national capabilities under allied command and the new coalitions for Ukraine moved leadership towards the flank. Galtung’s three principles, sixty years on, describe the European NATO well.
Ahmedoğlu, M., & Pernica, B. (2026). Pools of European structural integration: framing nations and the re-centring of defence pooling after 2022 [Working paper]. https://ahmedoglu.github.io/research/pools-european-structural-integration/
@unpublished{ahmedoglu2026pools,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin and Pernica, Bohuslav},
title = {Pools of European structural integration: framing nations and the re-centring of defence pooling after 2022},
year = {2026},
note = {Working paper. Draft},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.github.io/research/pools-european-structural-integration/},
}
Working paper2025
Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development: The Czech Aero L-39NG and Turkish TAI Hürjet in the Global Defense Economy
The Czech Aero L-39NG and Turkish Hürjet represent two contrasting approaches to the development of military training aircraft, reflecting different national attitudes toward defense-industrial policy, procurement models, and global market positioning. The study examines the economic, historical, and geopolitical factors underlying the two programs, situating them within the context of Johan Galtung’s structural theories of integration and imperialism as well as contemporary defense economics literature. Utilizing a comparative case study method, the research evaluates determinative factors such as government involvement, procurement autonomy, alliance integration, market competitiveness, and industrial scaling. The findings underscore that Czechia’s approach is one of niche specialization within NATO’s supply chain, leveraging legacy capabilities for export production, whereas Turkey’s holistic defense industrialization and strategic autonomy model relies on state-sponsored investment to challenge advanced Western suppliers. This examination makes important contributions to the literature on defense policy by demonstrating how mid-sized and smaller states can successfully manage the global arms market’s dynamics, striking a balance between integration and autonomy while developing viable aerospace industries. The research further offers policy suggestions to improve national defense R&D, promote cooperation within alliances, and minimize supply chain dependencies. Finally, the L-39NG and Hürjet cases embody the new roles of emerging defense producers amid a growing multipolar military-industrial structure.
Ahmedoğlu, M., & Pernica, B. (2025). Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development: The Czech Aero L-39NG and Turkish TAI Hürjet in the Global Defense Economy [Working paper]. https://ahmedoglu.github.io/research/l39ng-hurjet-trainer-jets/
@unpublished{ahmedoglu2025comparative,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin and Pernica, Bohuslav},
title = {Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development: The Czech Aero L-39NG and Turkish TAI Hürjet in the Global Defense Economy},
year = {2025},
note = {Working paper},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.github.io/research/l39ng-hurjet-trainer-jets/},
}
Current projects
European Defense Procurement after the 2022 Rearmament Shock
PhD dissertation · University of Vienna · Supervised by Prof. Dr. Oliver Fabel and Ass.-Prof. Dr. Dmitriy Knyazev
My dissertation studies how Europe’s rearmament after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is changing defense procurement, and what these changes mean for innovation, for firms, and for cooperation in EU defense projects. Working with procurement records from across Europe, firm-level data on contract winners, and the networks of firms in EU defense programs such as the European Defence Fund, it asks who wins defense contracts, through which procedures, and with what consequences for competition and for Europe’s defense-industrial base. The empirical work uses difference-in-differences designs around the 2022 shock and firm-level matching of suppliers.
Related working paper: Buying Under Fire: How the 2022 Rearmament Shock Reshaped Competition in European Defense Procurement
From the Periphery to the Centre? Czech and Turkish Ambition in NATO’s Airspace Industry
Joint project with Dr. Bohuslav Pernica
This comparative study assesses the ambitions of Czechia and Turkey within NATO’s airspace industry, particularly focusing on their respective military training jets—the L-39 NG and TAI Hürjet. The research explores how each country leverages its industrial base and government support to develop, produce, and export these advanced pilot training jets designed for the 4th–5th generation supersonic Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA). The study includes a detailed analysis of the involvement and strategic support by both governments in these projects, providing insights into how smaller NATO members can influence and integrate into the broader alliance’s defense capabilities.
Working paper: Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development
A Dynamic Public-Good Model of European Defense
Next project · In preparation
This project models European defense as a dynamic public good. Member states invest over time in shared military capabilities that depreciate, and each state’s contribution benefits all allies. The model asks how free-riding shapes who contributes, how much, and when, and what this implies for burden-sharing and for the design of European defense instruments.
Completed projects
Synchronized Politics: Time, Power, and Policy Coordination in the European Union (SYNCPOL)
Graduate Research Assistant · Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München · ERC Advanced Grant
I contributed to the ERC Advanced Grant project SYNCPOL: Synchronized Politics – Multiple Times and Political Power, led by Prof. Klaus H. Goetz. The project investigates how temporal structures—such as urgency, foresight, and sequencing—shape power dynamics and policy coordination across EU institutions. My role focused on quantitatively modeling how time-related political language influences multi-level governance in the domains of migration and public health. This involved the semantic scaling of political speeches from the European Commission, Parliament, and Council using advanced NLP techniques, including fine-tuned Sentence-BERT models, dynamic embeddings, and PCA-based ideological mapping.
EU Defense Discourse and Institutional Dynamics
Master’s thesis · Technical University of Munich · Chair of Economics of Innovation
For my Master’s thesis, EU Defense Discourse and Institutional Dynamics: A Computational Analysis of European Commission and European Parliament Rhetoric and Their Drivers (2000–2024), supervised by Dr. David Angenendt, I conducted the first comprehensive quantitative study of European Union institutional discourse on defense cooperation and strategic autonomy from 2000 to 2024. Employing a multi-method approach that combined computational text analysis, panel data econometrics, and time-series methods, the project analyzed 6.41 million sentences from European Commission and European Parliament communications. Transformer-based models classified defense-related content with 98.4% accuracy, allowing the identification of four distinct discourse dimensions: defense emphasis, joint capability promotion, sovereignty-oriented framing, and threat justification.
Presented at ICES 2025, Ulster University, Belfast. Related working paper: Who Securitizes European Defense?
Research agenda
- Defense Procurement & Multi-Goal Design. How EU buyers balance three objectives in joint programs—security of military/strategic information, innovation performance, and economic growth/competitiveness—and how procurement instruments (PCP, PIS, Innovation Partnerships) can be structured to deliver on all three.
- Coordination under Asymmetry (EDF, PESCO). How industrial capability gaps between small and large member states and divergent budget logics (NATO 2%, EDA benchmarks) shape collaboration, burden sharing, and “spend more, spend better, spend European.”
- Common-Agency & Contract Theory for Joint Programs. Applying common-agency and mechanism-design approaches to model multi-principal procurement (follow-on contracts, bundling vs. unbundling R&D/production, award criteria, negotiation vs. auction) and mitigate hold-up, lock-in, and foreclosure risks.
- Innovation Effects of Public Procurement. When and how public procurement triggers firm-level innovation (vs. incremental diffusion), the role of buyer capabilities, and how design choices (technology-neutral vs. specific tenders) alter incentives.
- Strategic Investment & Industrial Base. The political economy of sustained, multi-year defense investment and joint procurement as pillars of Europe’s defense-industrial capacity and strategic autonomy.
Methods: Contract/game theory, multi-attribute optimization for procurement trade-offs, and empirical analysis (panel econometrics on EDF/PESCO data; comparative case studies such as Eurodrone), complemented by text-as-data on institutional discourse.
Other work
Project report2021
Integrated Supply Collection and Ordering System for a Crossdock Facility
DHL Supply Chain operates in more than 55 countries and has over 2,600 facilities worldwide, employing 146,000 people. In contract logistics, it offers end-to-end services to industry customers. The project involves the cross-shipment of orders transported from Eastern Europe to Turkey for DHL’s automotive manufacturer client. Orders collected from more than 70 suppliers are consolidated at a cross-docking facility before being sent to the client. In this consolidation process, the urgency of the products and consolidation constraints are taken into account. The order quantity from the suppliers, collection frequency, and the order consolidation decisions at the cross-docking facility constitute a significant portion of the logistics cost. Therefore, DHL requires a specialized decision support algorithm that minimizes end-to-end costs in the supply chain. The aim of the project is to develop a shipment decision support system that ensures the customer’s production line is supplied without delay, minimizes vehicle and inventory carrying costs, and schedules the collection of orders from suppliers based on the products to be consolidated at the cross-docking facility while minimizing the number of vehicles dispatched from the facility during the planning period.
Ahmedoğlu, M., Almadadli, N., Kuşcu, E., Kumbaracı, Y., & Yılmaz, A. (2021). Integrated Supply Collection and Ordering System for a Crossdock Facility [Systems Design Project, Middle East Technical University, with DHL Supply Chain]. https://ahmedoglu.github.io/research/dhl-crossdock-decision-support/
@misc{ahmedoglu2021integrated,
author = {Ahmedoğlu, Mümin and Almadadli, Nargiz and Kuşcu, Elif and Kumbaracı, Yeşim and Yılmaz, Ataberk},
title = {Integrated Supply Collection and Ordering System for a Crossdock Facility},
year = {2021},
note = {Systems Design Project, Middle East Technical University, with DHL Supply Chain},
url = {https://ahmedoglu.github.io/research/dhl-crossdock-decision-support/},
}