My approach integrates contract theory, econometric modeling, and data-driven analysis to bridge theoretical insights with policy relevance. Beyond my doctoral work, I have studied comparative defense policy, the civilian adaptation of military technologies (UAVs), and the global dynamics of defense spending and innovation. My goal is to contribute to a more coherent understanding of how analytical and economic perspectives can improve defense cooperation and policy design in Europe.

An up-to-date list of my work is also available on Google Scholar and ORCID.

Publications

Journal article2026Online first

Turning legacy into alliance relevance: Czechia’s defense-industrial imaginary and the politics of selective sovereignty

Mümin AhmedoğluNew Perspectives

DOI

Working papers

Working paper2026Under review at European Security

Who Securitizes European Defense? Institutional Differentiation in EU Security Discourse, 2000–2024

Mümin Ahmedoğlu

Working paper2026Under review at Defence and Peace Economics

Buying Under Fire: How the 2022 Rearmament Shock Reshaped Competition in European Defense Procurement

Mümin Ahmedoğlu

Working paper2026Draft

Pools of European structural integration: framing nations and the re-centring of defence pooling after 2022

Mümin Ahmedoğlu and Bohuslav Pernica

Working paper2025

Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development: The Czech Aero L-39NG and Turkish TAI Hürjet in the Global Defense Economy

Mümin Ahmedoğlu and Bohuslav Pernica

Current projects

European Defense Procurement after the 2022 Rearmament Shock

PhD dissertation · University of Vienna · Supervised by Prof. Dr. Oliver Fabel and Ass.-Prof. Dr. Dmitriy Knyazev

My dissertation studies how Europe’s rearmament after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is changing defense procurement, and what these changes mean for innovation, for firms, and for cooperation in EU defense projects. Working with procurement records from across Europe, firm-level data on contract winners, and the networks of firms in EU defense programs such as the European Defence Fund, it asks who wins defense contracts, through which procedures, and with what consequences for competition and for Europe’s defense-industrial base. The empirical work uses difference-in-differences designs around the 2022 shock and firm-level matching of suppliers.

Related working paper: Buying Under Fire: How the 2022 Rearmament Shock Reshaped Competition in European Defense Procurement

From the Periphery to the Centre? Czech and Turkish Ambition in NATO’s Airspace Industry

Joint project with Dr. Bohuslav Pernica

This comparative study assesses the ambitions of Czechia and Turkey within NATO’s airspace industry, particularly focusing on their respective military training jets—the L-39 NG and TAI Hürjet. The research explores how each country leverages its industrial base and government support to develop, produce, and export these advanced pilot training jets designed for the 4th–5th generation supersonic Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA). The study includes a detailed analysis of the involvement and strategic support by both governments in these projects, providing insights into how smaller NATO members can influence and integrate into the broader alliance’s defense capabilities.

Working paper: Comparative National Strategies in Military Trainer Jet Development

A Dynamic Public-Good Model of European Defense

Next project · In preparation

This project models European defense as a dynamic public good. Member states invest over time in shared military capabilities that depreciate, and each state’s contribution benefits all allies. The model asks how free-riding shapes who contributes, how much, and when, and what this implies for burden-sharing and for the design of European defense instruments.

Completed projects

Synchronized Politics: Time, Power, and Policy Coordination in the European Union (SYNCPOL)

Graduate Research Assistant · Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München · ERC Advanced Grant

I contributed to the ERC Advanced Grant project SYNCPOL: Synchronized Politics – Multiple Times and Political Power, led by Prof. Klaus H. Goetz. The project investigates how temporal structures—such as urgency, foresight, and sequencing—shape power dynamics and policy coordination across EU institutions. My role focused on quantitatively modeling how time-related political language influences multi-level governance in the domains of migration and public health. This involved the semantic scaling of political speeches from the European Commission, Parliament, and Council using advanced NLP techniques, including fine-tuned Sentence-BERT models, dynamic embeddings, and PCA-based ideological mapping.

Project website

EU Defense Discourse and Institutional Dynamics

Master’s thesis · Technical University of Munich · Chair of Economics of Innovation

For my Master’s thesis, EU Defense Discourse and Institutional Dynamics: A Computational Analysis of European Commission and European Parliament Rhetoric and Their Drivers (2000–2024), supervised by Dr. David Angenendt, I conducted the first comprehensive quantitative study of European Union institutional discourse on defense cooperation and strategic autonomy from 2000 to 2024. Employing a multi-method approach that combined computational text analysis, panel data econometrics, and time-series methods, the project analyzed 6.41 million sentences from European Commission and European Parliament communications. Transformer-based models classified defense-related content with 98.4% accuracy, allowing the identification of four distinct discourse dimensions: defense emphasis, joint capability promotion, sovereignty-oriented framing, and threat justification.

Presented at ICES 2025, Ulster University, Belfast. Related working paper: Who Securitizes European Defense?

Research agenda

  • Defense Procurement & Multi-Goal Design. How EU buyers balance three objectives in joint programs—security of military/strategic information, innovation performance, and economic growth/competitiveness—and how procurement instruments (PCP, PIS, Innovation Partnerships) can be structured to deliver on all three.
  • Coordination under Asymmetry (EDF, PESCO). How industrial capability gaps between small and large member states and divergent budget logics (NATO 2%, EDA benchmarks) shape collaboration, burden sharing, and “spend more, spend better, spend European.”
  • Common-Agency & Contract Theory for Joint Programs. Applying common-agency and mechanism-design approaches to model multi-principal procurement (follow-on contracts, bundling vs. unbundling R&D/production, award criteria, negotiation vs. auction) and mitigate hold-up, lock-in, and foreclosure risks.
  • Innovation Effects of Public Procurement. When and how public procurement triggers firm-level innovation (vs. incremental diffusion), the role of buyer capabilities, and how design choices (technology-neutral vs. specific tenders) alter incentives.
  • Strategic Investment & Industrial Base. The political economy of sustained, multi-year defense investment and joint procurement as pillars of Europe’s defense-industrial capacity and strategic autonomy.

Methods: Contract/game theory, multi-attribute optimization for procurement trade-offs, and empirical analysis (panel econometrics on EDF/PESCO data; comparative case studies such as Eurodrone), complemented by text-as-data on institutional discourse.

Other work

Project report2021

Integrated Supply Collection and Ordering System for a Crossdock Facility

Mümin Ahmedoğlu, Nargiz Almadadli, Elif Kuşcu, Yeşim Kumbaracı, and Ataberk YılmazSystems Design Project, Middle East Technical University, with DHL Supply Chain

Link